Avalanche Forecast

Good - -1

Wednesday: Another 5-10cm expected with light to moderate southwesterly winds and freezing levels around 1000m. Thursday and Friday: Clear and dry with significant warming by Friday and moderate northwesterly winds becoming light and variable.

Several natural and slope-cut step down slab avalanches Size 2 to 3.5 associated with the mid-January persistent weakness as deep as 150cm occurred on Monday. Check out the incident database (link under the Bulletins tab) for a report of a slope-cut stepping down to the mid-January facets in the Monkton Creek area near Barkerville. The recent storm snow also remains sensitive to human triggers with several Size 1 to 2, 30-40cm thick slab avalanches.

Total snowpack depths are well above average or even new record depths for this time of year. Recent warm temperatures and upside-down storms created a touchy surface slab. Other weaknesses within and under the 150+cm of recent storm snow create the potential for step-down avalanches, but things seem so be settling rapidly. Moderate southerly or southwesterly winds have created wind slabs and large fragile cornices in exposed lee and cross-loaded terrain. Snowpack test results on the mid-January persistent weakness range from no result where it's deeply buried to moderate sudden where it was found as facets overlying a crust down 80cm. This, as well as recent avalanche activity, suggests large persistent slab avalanche that propagate across entire slopes could be triggered, especially by step-down avalanches and cornice falls in shallow snowpack areas.