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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 31st, 2015–Jan 1st, 2016
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Cariboos.

Keep your wits about you as sun and above zero temperatures affect alpine slopes this weekend.

Confidence

Moderate

Weather Forecast

A dominant ridge of high pressure brings light northerly winds, sun and increasingly mild temperatures in the alpine. Below about 1700 m, expect valley cloud, flurries and cold temperatures. Alpine temperatures are expected to reach 0 degrees by Friday afternoon.For more details check out https://avalanche.ca/weather.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, a skier triggered a size 1 soft slab on a NW aspect and a size 2 glide slab release was observed at 1200 m. On Tuesday, several size 1 wind slabs were ski cut on SE through SW aspects in the alpine. This were typically soft slabs 5-30 cm thick. Progressive warming in the alpine with ongoing sunny conditions should result in ongoing loose natural avalanches from south-facing slopes and by the weekend may create slab properties within the recent storm snow.

Snowpack Summary

Hard and soft wind slabs may be found on any recently wind-affected terrain, especially at alpine and treeline elevations. 40-70 cm recent dry snowfall overlies a mid- and lower snowpack which are reportedly well settled. There may be some storm snow interfaces to watch in specific areas. Storm slab properties may also change as the alpine gets some sun and temperatures rise. The early December weak layer (about a metre down) is now hard to find and unlikely to be triggered, except with a very heavy trigger. At the base of the snowpack, on high north aspects, basal facets overlie glacial ice.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Recent winds have left soft and hard wind slabs in alpine and treeline terrain. Winds have recently changed directions so the problem could exist on either side of a ridge.
Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow. >Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain. >Back off if you encounter hard, breakable or drum-like snow.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Dry

As the temperatures in the alpine continue to rise, the sun will pack more punch. Loose avalanche activity is expected to continue from steep, rocky, sun-exposed slopes. The volume of dry snow could push you around.
Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs. >Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >Minimize exposure to steep sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong. >

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2