Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 22nd, 2015 8:12AM

The alpine rating is below threshold, the treeline rating is below threshold, and the below treeline rating is below threshold. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada esharp, Avalanche Canada

There are still a lot of gaps in our knowledge about the early season snowpack. If you get out to enjoy some of the great early season riding please submit any observations from your day to the MIN.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

An advancing cold front is going to bring between 10 and 20 cm of snow over the next couple of days with the greatest accumulations expected for the Blue River area. By Wednesday a high pressure system will settle over BC bringing several days of chilly but stable weather. Winds will be light from the south on Monday, becoming northerly on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Avalanche Summary

I'm working with limited observations but there haven't been any recent reports of avalanche activity in the Caribous or surrounding regions. However, the presence of wind slabs and the lingering basal weakness on north to east facing terrain in the alpine give me concern that smaller wind slab avalanches could possibly step down to deeper layers.

Snowpack Summary

It sounds like people found some great bottomless riding conditions this weekend. The snow forecast for Monday is expected to bond well to the 50 to 80cm of low density snow that fell last week. Below this new snow we're still dealing with a variable early season snowpack. Changes in wind, freezing levels and snowfall amounts mean that the snowpack structure could be dramatically different depending on aspect and elevation. Layers of buried surface hoar or crusts may be found depending on where you dig. It would be wise to test these layers before committing to a slope. At higher elevations in the alpine, facets may be found near the ground, especially on north to east aspects. Remember that although it's starting to look like winter, its still a young snowpack. Rocks and stumps may be lurking unseen just below the surface. Ride with care!

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
New snow may cover fresh wind slabs. I suspect that the snow in north to east facing lee features could still be quite reactive. Look for shooting cracks as a sign you are entering a previously wind loaded area.
Use caution in lee areas in the alpine. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
We're still dealing with a highly variable early season snowpack and several persistent weak layers have been reported from across the region including surface hoar crusts and facets. Smaller surface avalanches could possibly step down.
Now is a good time to dig a snow profile (or two) and figure out how the snowpack changes with aspect and elevation.>Early season hazards such as rocks, trees and stumps are lurking on or just under the surface>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 4

Valid until: Nov 23rd, 2015 2:00PM