The general avalanche hazard is Considerable above an elevation of 7,500 feet and is Moderate below that elevation. Although the sensitivity of unstable slabs is slowly decreasing, in steep avalanche prone terrain, humans could still trigger recently formed surface slabs and dangerous persistent slabs. Wind slabs formed during the most recent storm cycle are a hazard on steep wind-loaded avalanche terrain. Large to very large persistent slabs are most likely to be triggered on steep slopes that had a shallow snowpack with poor snow structure at the end of January. The consequences of triggering a large destructive avalanche are likely to be severe. A careful assessment of the snowpack and conservative terrain choices are essential for snowmobilers and skiers who travel in avalanche terrain.
Surface slabs formed by southwest winds during the most recent storm cycle continue to be a hazard on steep wind-loaded slopes. These slabs could be triggered by snowmobilers and skiers with depths of one to three feet. Today's sunshine may increase the sensitivity of these slabs to human triggers.
Persistent slab avalanches that would involve faceted snow layers formed earlier in the season could be triggered by snowmachines or the weight of a single person on steep avalanche prone slopes. In addition to being triggered when a person hits a particularly weak or thin spot on a slope, they may also release following the initiation of a wind slab. These large to very large hard slab avalanches could be 3 to 5 feet deep at the higher elevations. They could be one to three feet deep below an elevation of 7,500 feet where they are likely to release as soft slabs.
( Discussion is generated from the previous day's afternoon forecast. )Light snow and flurries are possible overnight with partial clearing expected during the day on Tuesday. Temperatures are to remain on the cold side and will be slightly inverted with sub-zero temps expected at all elevations in the morning and highs in the low teens. Winds are to be light with five to ten mile per hour averages ranging from the west to the north. The general avalanche hazard is expected to be Moderate in the Tetons. This reduction in the rating is only due to the fact that natural avalanches are not likely and slabs will be slightly less sensitive. Do not take this an indication that it is safe to go onto to steep terrain. Slabs that could be large in size could still be triggered by the weight of a single person. These slabs may be soft to hard and may break higher than they typically do on a slope. If caught in one of these events, the outcome may be fatal. The rating will remain Considerable at the Togwotee Pass and Southwest Trails areas where conditions remain in a more fragile state due to these areas having a weaker snowpack. This is especially true in the Togwotee Pass area where storms have consistently delivered less snow and cold temperatures have faceted the snowpack throughout the season.
