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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 17th, 2014–Feb 18th, 2014

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Tuesday: Precipitation is expected to end overnight after a few more cm of snow falls above 1000 metres elevation. Winds becoming very strong and gusty in the afternoon as the next Pacific system moves in quickly from the South Coast bringing 10-15 cm.Wednesday: Snow ending by morning as the winds become light Westerly and the freezing level lowers to about 800 metres.Thursday: Overcast with flurries and light Southwest winds.

Avalanche Summary

No new reports of avalanche activity. I suspect easy triggering in and below the storm slab of 50-80 cm.

Snowpack Summary

10-30 cm of new snow combined with strong Southwest winds overnight, brings the storm snow up to 50-80 cm. Below the storm snow there is about 20 cm of snow from last week that buried the late January layer of crusts and/or facets and surface hoar. This persistent weak layer from Late January continues to be the sliding layer for natural and human triggered avalanches. The mid snowpack is well settled and strong. The deeply buried weak layers of early season facets and depth hoar have been dormant, but they may become reactive with the right combination of added load and warm temperatures. The forecast new snow and wind are expected to add to the load above the late January weak layer, and may result in avalanches running naturally or increased sensitivity to human triggers at this interface.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.