Avalanche forecast

Chilkat Pass

Haines Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE above 2,500ft and MODERATE above 1,500ft. Thursday's snowfall and strong winds produced wind slabs that are still likely for human triggering on slopes greater than 30 degrees. Use caution on wind-loaded slopes by using visual clues to assess the presence of wind slabs and factor persistent slabs into your terrain and route choices. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wind slabs formed over previously weakened snow surfaces, slowing their stabilization. Thursday's 2-4" of snow combined with moderate to strong southerly winds formed wind slabs—these slabs formed in specific areas near summits, along ridgelines, and in cross-loaded gullies. Look for visual clues, including natural avalanche activity and areas where winds have scoured slopes and then re-deposited onto loaded slopes.

    Beware of cornices and wind lips that could have formed. The new snow and strong south winds produced another layer of recent cornices. We should give these a wide distance for safety and minimize our time near them.  Cornices are a good indicator that slopes below them have unstable snow and can be a large natural trigger for an avalanche, especially where persistent slabs are present (see Problem 2).

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    Fresh snow and longer days can fuel the stoke- balance it with understanding previous seasonal weather events and how they've affected the snowpack. Known weak layers include buried surface hoar, facets, melt-freeze layers, and depth hoar.  These can propagate from shallow to deeper areas.  Signs of instability could be apparent, such as large whumphs and collapses, or non-existent. Does the enticing slope you want to get on have buried persistent weak layers?  

    Remain suspect of unsupported slopes and shallow areas in the snowpack. Even smaller avalanches could be dangerous enough to have high consequences. Weak layers may be more or less apparent in certain areas, making mapping the problem tricky. Utilize cautious route-finding and minimize exposure by choosing safe spots to re-group and traveling one at a time. 

    (2/14/2024)

    January 10-11th storm cycle had strong south winds that formed cornices along ridgelines. Cornice failure can step down and trigger persistent layers in steep terrain below.

    Photo: Haines Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

The people you go out with, how you communicate, and how you practice risk reduction as a team throughout the day are equally important as the conditions. Always practice safe travel techniques and terrain management- only exposing one person to a slope at a time, avoid grouping up in run-out zones, and re-consider islands of safety to truly limit your group's exposure. Carry radios, first-aid, and a two-way emergency communication device. Take an avalanche course, and practice companion rescue often with your riding group. Every scenario is different, so it pays to be prepared.

 

Recent weather history and snowpack layering:

  •  Feb 17-21st - After the inversion broke down, temperatures rebounded right-side up with freezing levels reaching 2,500ft and a generally warmer temperature regime.
  •  Feb. 13-16th - An inversion brought freezing levels as high as 7,000ft. Sunlight and melt-freeze weakened the new snow surface via recrystallization and surface hoar growth at and below the treeline.
  • Feb. 10-11th - Low pressure returned with strong southeast winds, increasing temperatures, and 1-1.5" of snow water equivalent (SWE). This storm produced a natural avalanche cycle on persistent weak layers.
  • Feb 7-8th - Cold temperatures and calm winds produced surface hoar and near surface faceting.
  • Feb 2-3rd - Light snow over our regions with the highest accumulations near town with 3-5".
  • Jan 31st-Feb 3rd - An intense northerly outflow event brought W-NW-N wind through the region. This was accompanied by another sharp drop in temperature with a maximum low of -15F at the Haines Pass. Another flip-flop weather event saw temperature increase between 25-40 degrees Fahrenheit.
  • January 27-29th - A two-pulse pineapple express event with ~6" total SWE. During the first wave, Jan 26-28th, 2-3" of SWE fell as temps climbed, with freezing levels peaking up to 5,000'. This was when a D3.5 slid over the Haines highway at 21 miles.  In part two of the event on Monday, Jan 29th, there was another 2-3"+ of SWE, but in 24 hours, it was colder with 2,500-3,000' freezing levels and moderate to gusting strong S-SE winds. These events helped create the current widespread melt-freeze surface crust nicknamed the late January Pineapple Express crust. 
  • January 2024 - Cold temperatures most of January faceted and accelerated the weakening of persistent snow grains throughout the snowpack: at the surface, below wind slabs, near melt-freeze crusts, and on the ground, especially in areas with a shallow snowpack. Three major temperature dips occurred around Jan 11th, Jan 19th, and Jan 22nd.
  • December 29th - The end of the year (EOY) melt-freeze crust is from when above-freezing temperatures  ~3,000ft- 4,000ft or higher caused the formation of a thick ( 1" +/-), widespread melt-freeze crust down 20-50cm. The cold weather in mid-January faceted and weakened snow around the crust. The "late-January pineapple express" had avalanches that released EOY instabilities in some areas but inconclusive in others.

 

 

Help us gather information about weather, snowpack, and avalanche activity by reading and submitting field observations. Useful observations can be anonymous and include: 

  • Avalanche Activity: Natural or human-triggered
  • Signs of Instability: Cracking, collapsing, or whumping
  • Red Flag Weather: Precipitation, wind loading, warming temperatures and rain-on-snow
  • Persistent Weak Layers: Surface hoar growth, snow depth, persistent weak layers, etc
  • Snow Pits: Stability test results, layers of concern, total snow depth, location, elevation, aspect, etc 

 

Were you caught, carried, injured, or buried in a slide? We are all human and can benefit from anonymous lessons learned. Please report incidents to Haines Avalanche Center staff confidentially.

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