Avalanche forecast

Two Thumbs

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 1,800 m
3 · Considerable
Alpine · 1,200 m–1,800 m
3 · Considerable
Sub Alpine · below 1,200 m
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Higher elevation terrain has received a lot of snow that will need time to settle.

Lower down, rain has weakened the snowpack.

Hunker down and wait out the weather is the best option.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    50cm of snow has fallen above about 2200m. Some terrain will be loaded with more than this as strong north east winds will have transported the snow to south and west facing slopes.

    This snow needs time to gain strength and bond.

    Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Below about 2200m the snow has received a lot of rain. Falling temps early on Thursday have decreased the danger. However rising freezing levels and more rain is forecast for later in the day.

    With this level of snowpack saturation, large natural loose wet avalanches are possible. Be mindful of what is above you especially when the rain returns.

Recent Avalanche Activity

A size 1.5 windslab was triggered by skiers in the Haszard Range on Monday. It was on an east facing slope at 2000m. Similar snow conditions exist on the Two Thumb Range.

If you see any activity on the Two Thumb Range, please make a public observation. It helps us to produce accurate forecasts.

Current Snowpack Conditions

The tops of the highest peaks in the area have received about 30cm of new snow.

Rain has saturated the snowpack below about 2100m. Followed by about 5-10cm of fresh snow to low levels early Thursday morning with a further 5-10cm expected during the day.

Prior to the storm the old snow pack was saturated with rain on Wednesday. It was well settled with wind blown pockets sitting over surface crusts in most places.

Snow depth varies from 40-75cm, with deeper accumulations of 100-120cm in sheltered areas.

Mountain Weather

Rain, easing about the foothills this evening. Snow lowering to 400 metres, affecting high-level roads, then lifting to 1800 metres from the north this afternoon and early evening.

Wind at 1000 metres

Easterly 40 km/h, rising to gale northeasterly 70 km/h.

Wind at 2000 metres

Easterly 45 km/h, rising to gale northeasterly 65 km/h this morning, and to northerly severe gale 120 km/h this afternoon.

Freezing level

800 metres. Lifting to 2100 metres in the north this afternoon.

Sliding Danger

Rain followed by heavy snow should keep the sliding danger away for the next few days.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are confident the likelihood of avalanches will increase with the forecast weather.
  • We are uncertain about forecast precipitation amounts.
  • We are uncertain due to variable freezing levels.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered