Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Friday

Thursday night and Friday: Enhanced precipitation are expected over the region with the low pressure tracking over the region tonight. Freezing levels will start to drop (1400 m.) bringing the snow line lower. Light to moderate amounts are expected until Friday and will taper off becoming light during the day. Moderate to strong winds should switch from the SW to the W.Saturday: Unsettled conditions without any frontal systems bringing very light precipitation, moderate to strong W winds, mainly cloudy skies and freezing levels near 1400 m.Sunday: Similar pattern as Saturday with cooler temperatures and lighter winds.

I suspect that there is a natural avalanche cycle ongoing. Multiple natural and skier triggered slab avalanches up to size 2 were reported at all elevation and on all aspects.

The warm storm has left from 20 to 40 cm of snow above 2000 m.  At higher elevations, snow has been transported by strong SW and W winds creating wind slabs on lee alpine features and storm slabs that are very touchy. Below the freezing line, the snowpack is rain soaked. Another pulse of precipitation will add weight onto the storm slabs and the already moist/wet snowpack.  The new snow has not been bonding well to the underlying surfaces creating lots of recent avalanche activity, easy snowpack test results and reactivity to skier traffic. Some of the significant underlying surfaces mentioned before include a surface hoar layer in shaded-sheltered areas, a suncrust on S aspects and a melt-freeze crust below 1700 m. The surface hoar persistent weak layer buried down 100 cm is also still a concern to professionals and would generate very large avalanches if triggered.