Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 24th, 2014 8:46AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs and Loose Wet.

jlammers, Avalanche Canada

Kootenay Boundary.

Intense solar warming on alpine slopes may not be obvious if you're trapped within the valley cloud. Be aware of terrain above you.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

The ridge of high pressure will continue to bring mainly clear skies, valley cloud and dry conditions for Saturday and Sunday morning. By late Sunday and into Monday there may be some increased upper level cloud, but no significant precipitation is expected. An inversion with above freezing alpine temperatures should persist until Sunday morning with more seasonal temperatures developing by Monday. Winds are forecast to be light and northerly.

Avalanche Summary

There have been no new reports of avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

A dusting of snow overlies a variety of surfaces which include hard, stubborn windslabs in exposed upper elevation terrain and well developed surface hoar at treeline and below. Sun-exposed slopes are seeing a daily melt-freeze cycle. Ongoing warm daytime temperatures have promoted settlement within the snowpack, while cool nights have allowed for significant surface faceting.Closer to the ground, below a generally strong and well settled mid pack, there are 2 layers of note: the late November surface hoar, and a crust/facet combo which formed in October. Both of these layers represent a low probability-high consequence scenario. That said, warming forecast for the next few days may be what it takes to bring these layers back to life. Other possible triggers include cornice fall or thin spot triggering on an unsupported slope in the alpine or at treeline.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep persistent slabs have become much harder to trigger; however, avalanches on deeply buried weaknesses would be highly destructive. Warming over the next few days may be enough to re-activate these layers.

Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely

Expected Size

3 - 5

Loose Wet

Warming throughout the next few days will have a destabilizing effect on the snowpack. Loose wet avalanches will become likely, particularly on steep, sun-exposed slopes.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 25th, 2014 2:00PM