Avalanche Forecast

On Monday, a fast-moving Pacific frontal system will bring 10-20cm of new snow, moderate southwest winds and freezing levels at about 500m. Expect a clearing trend on Tuesday and Wednesday as a dry ridge of high pressure sets up over the region. Ridgetop winds associated with the ridge should remain northeasterly, blowing up to 60kmh on Tuesday, then easing somewhat on Wednesday. Freezing levels on Tuesday and Wednesday should hover around valley bottom.

No recent avalanches have been reported. New snow and wind forecast for Monday will likely promote a fresh round of wind slab avalanche activity.

Snow depths are highly variable across the region; however, slopes below treeline are below threshold for avalanche activity. A dusting of loose snow overlies a widespread rain crust that is reported to exist up to about 2100m in many parts of the region. A Mountain Information Network report near Elfin Lakes also indicated surface hoar development above the crust. New snow forecast for Monday may bond poorly to this potentially weak surface structure. Where the near-surface crust is robust (>1cm thick), the upper snowpack has gained strength and avalanches failing on deeper layers have become much less likely. I'd be extra cautious in areas where the near-surface crust is thin or has not formed (I'm thinking high alpine terrain or northern parts of the region). In these areas, deeper persistent weak layers may still be sensitive to human triggering.