Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 6th, 2024 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs.

wlewis, Avalanche Canada

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Use caution around wind loaded features, like ridgelines and mid slope rollovers.

Wind slabs likely remain reactive to human triggers.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

We expect a natural avalanche cycle to have occurred in areas with strong winds and heavy snowfall. Reactivity is now expected to be limited to wind affected terrain.

Please help out your backcountry community by submitting a MIN report if you head out to the backcountry.

Snowpack Summary

Recent heavy snowfall and strong west winds have built deeper slabs in wind-loaded features on east-facing slopes. Slabs will be deepest and most reactive in the south and west of the island, where storm totals reached 70 cm. In eastern terrain, storm totals were closer to 20-30 cm.

The remainder of the snowpack is strong and hosts numerous hard melt-freeze crusts.

Treeline snow depths generally range from 50 to 150 cm. Snow depth diminishes rapidly below 1000 m, these elevations received more heavy rainfall and a crust has likely formed. Traveling on skis is almost impossible below treeline.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy with no snowfall. Freezing level drops to around 700 m. Northwest winds, 30-40 km/h.

Sunday

Mostly sunny with no precipitation. Northwest winds, 20-40 km/h. Freezing levels around 800 m, treeline temperature -4 ºC.

Monday

Cloudy with flurries delivering 5-10 cm. Southwest winds 40-60 km/h. Freezing levels rise to 1000 m. Treeline temperatures around -2 ºC.

Tuesday

Cloudy with strong westerly winds. Freezing levels around 1000 m. Light to moderate snowfall expected.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
Stay off recently wind loaded slopes until they have had a chance to stabilize.
Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Reactivity likey lingers in wind affected terrain. Winds have shifted from the southwest to northwest.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 7th, 2024 4:00PM