Avalanche Forecast

High -

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear skies, light south wind, alpine temperature 3 C, freezing level 2800 m.FRIDAY: Mostly clear skies, light southeast wind, alpine temperature 3 C, freezing level 2700 m.SATURDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 cm, light south wind, alpine temperature 0 C, freezing level 1900 m.SUNDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 1 to 3 cm, light southeast wind, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level 1500 m.

Many wet loose avalanches were observed between Sunday and Wednesday. They were large (up to size 3), occurred on southeast to southwest aspects, and at all elevations. A wet slab avalanche was also observed. It was triggered naturally from the warming on a south aspect at 2300 m. It scrubbed to ground, with a thickness of 100 to 150 cm. This avalanche cycle may continue on Friday on sun-exposed slopes, as temperatures remain exceptionally warm and the sun shines strong. The cycle should end on Saturday, as freezing levels drop and cloudy skies prevail.

The warm air and sunny skies have produced wet snow to ridge top on southerly aspects and up to around 1800 m on northerly aspects. The upper 30 to 60 cm of snow may slide easily during the day on sun-exposed slopes, either as loose wet snow or as a cohesive slab, as this snow sits over weak faceted grains or a melt-freeze crust. The wet snow may freeze into a melt-freeze crust overnight.Below treeline, a weak layer of faceted grains and/or feathery surface hoar crystals may be found around 60 to 100 cm deep. Although this layer has been dormant for a few weeks, the current warm conditions may awaken this layer. Steep cutblocks and large open glades at lower elevations are the most likely places to trigger this layer.The lower snowpack is generally consolidated and strong. The exception is around thin, rocky areas in the alpine, where the lower snowpack is composed of faceted snow. The warm air and sunny skies may increase the likelihood of triggering large avalanches that could run to the valley bottom.