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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 17th, 2015–Mar 18th, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Pockets of good skiing can be found in sheltered locations. Otherwise, ski conditions remain challenging.

Weather Forecast

Cloudy skies and minimal precipitation is forecasted for the next few days. Most of the precip will arrive Friday (~10mm equivalent). Temps at valley bottom will be hovering around zero degrees, cooler up high. Given the warmish temperatures and late time of year, any unexpected burst of solar energy will change conditions for the worse.

Snowpack Summary

Recent strong wind has created hard slabs on the snow surface in the alpine. Below this expect to find a mix of facets and crusts. As ghastly as that combination sounds, generally it is well bonded.

Avalanche Summary

A natural size avalanche size 1.5 was observed near the Balfour Hut today. The observer describes the avalanche as a hard windslab. It was noted at 2300m on a North aspect. No other avalanches were observed or reported.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

These wind slabs are becoming less sensitive, however human triggering is still possible. Likely this will come in the form of a hard wind slab rather than a soft one, if tested.
The recent snow may now be hiding windslabs that were easily visible before the snow fell.Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

The lower half of the snowpack is weak due to the presence of basal facets and depth hoar. This layer has been dormant lately but may be more sensitive with the new load, especially in thin areas.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3