Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Another warm wet storm is forecast to impact the island starting early Saturday morning and peaking in intensity overnight. Rising freezing levels will likely mean the bulk of precipitation will fall as rain at all but the highest peak elevations. The storm looks to focus on the southwest of the region, with lighter precip amounts in the north.

Friday night: Increasing cloud. Light westerly winds shifting southwest and increasing to strong. Treeline low temperature around 0C. Freezing levels rising to 1800m.

Saturday: Rain; 10-30 mm over the day, with another 20-60 mm overnight. Strong to extreme southwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around +5 as freezing levels jump to 2800 metres.

Sunday: Rain turning to snow at upper elevations; 10-25 cm. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around +3 C. Freezing levels dropping to 1800 m.

Monday: Clear. Light variable winds. Treeline high temperatures around +3 C.

We haven't yet received any conditions reports in the region. If you go out in the mountains, please post your observations and/or photos to the Mountain Information Network!

By midday Saturday, any dry surface snow will likely be rain soaked as freezing levels rise above mountaintop through the storm.

Preliminary investigations into the region's existing snowpack suggest alpine snowpack depths around 150 cm or more, depth tapering dramatically with elevation to about 30-60 cm at treeline. We expect that snowpack depths remain below threshold for avalanches below about 1300 metres. 

• Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy rain.
• The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.