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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 20th, 2022–Feb 21st, 2022
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Southwest winds have turned northeast and may load unexpected features. Watch for reactivity on all aspects around ridgelines. 

Check for changing conditions as you move through different aspects and elevations. 

Confidence

Moderate - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

Arctic air drops temperatures and clears skies this week. Expect mostly sunny days with a chance of occasional flurries.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Isolated flurries continue with partly cloudy skies. Light to moderate northeast winds. Freezing levels at valley bottom.

MONDAY: A mix of sun and cloud, moderate northeast winds possibly gusting strong. Freezing levels below valley bottom, alpine high of -20. Chance of isolated flurries. 

TUESDAY: Mostly clear, moderate northeast winds. Freezing levels below valley bottom. Alpine high of -20. Chance of isolated flurries. 

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny with scattered cloud. Light winds. Freezing level at valley bottom, alpine high of -17. Chance of isolated flurries. 

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, several small slabs and loose dry were reported as snowfall began to accumulate. 

We expect human triggered slab avalanche activity to have continued on Sunday, within the storm snow. 

Snowpack Summary

20-30cm of recent snowfall sits over a melt freeze crust on solar aspects at all elevations, and wind effected surfaces in exposed terrain. 

A buried surface hoar layer can be found 30-60 cm deep on north-facing slopes around treeline. This layer has been reactive in snowpack tests, and new snow is expected to increase the likelihood of triggering this layer. 

The snowpack below is well consolidated, with a crust/facet layer found near the bottom of the snowpack. It is currently considered dormant, but could become active later this season. Check out the forecaster blog for more information. 

Terrain and Travel

  • The new snow could use a day or two to settle and stabilize before we start to tee up the bigger lines.
  • Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Watch for pockets around ridgelines, loaded from moderate southwest winds. 

Wind slabs may be also build over the day as east/northeast winds pick up so check for wind loading on all aspects.  

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2