Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 17th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Wind Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.
jleblanc,
Avalanche Canada
There is still a concern about the reactivity of wind slabs and deep persistent slabs. In times of uncertainty, conservative terrain choices are our best defense.
Summary
Confidence
High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.
Weather Forecast
MONDAY NIGHT: Flurries, moderate west wind, treeline temperatures around -2 C, freezing level around 1000 m lowering to valley bottom.
TUESDAY: Flurries then clearing, moderate northwest wind, treeline temperatures around -3 C, freezing level lowering at valley bottom.
WEDNESDAY: A mix of sun and clouds, light north wind, treeline temperatures around -6 C, freezing level at valley bottom.
THURSDAY: Snow 10-15 cm, moderate southwesterly wind, treeline temperatures around -4 C, freezing level rising to 1000 m.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches were reported in the last 24h.
Thursday, large avalanches (size 2.5) with impressive propagation were triggered by strong solar radiation and warm temperatures (+5 C at treeline). Several loose wet avalanches were also observed at lower elevations along with significant pinwheeling. While in motion, some of these loose avalanches pulled large storm slabs, scouring avalanche paths to the ground in places.
Wednesday, a widespread avalanche cycle occurred, with numerous sizes 1-2 storm slabs avalanches and one size 3 avalanche near Ymir Mountain. These avalanches were 20-40 cm thick, and in many cases were suspected to have failed on a recently buried surface hoar layer (see photos in the MIN post).Â
We have not heard reports of persistent slab avalanches since last weekend when we saw numerous sizes 2 to 3 avalanches releasing on the early December facet/crust layer. Prior to these avalanches, we were seeing a regular pattern of large destructive avalanches on this layer at the start of the month. These avalanches mostly occurred on thin, wind-affected slopes near ridge tops.Â
Snowpack Summary
Winds have redistributed the dry alpine snow on lee slopes and open areas at treeline. Around 1900 m and below, a crust is now capping the dense 10-30 cm of recent snow which has settled significantly with the past mild temperatures. The crust varies from thin/breakable to thick/supportive, according to the aspects and elevation. Below the recent snow, a layer of feathery surface hoar and melt-freeze crusts are found, which seem to still show signs of reactivity in isolated areas. Lower elevations have gone through a melt-freeze cycle.
The early December crust/facet layer has been responsible for sporadic but very large, persistent slab avalanches over the past month. The crust is now buried 120-200 cm deep except in thin, wind-affected areas near ridgetops where most of the recent avalanches have been triggered.
Terrain and Travel
- Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
- If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
- Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
- Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Winds have transported the dry snow and created wind slabs, which overlie a layer of buried surface hoar, and in some areas a thin crust. Due to the weak layer below, slabs reactivity may persist where the snow surface remains dry and crust-free at higher elevations. Wind slabs are most likely to be reactive in lee and cross loaded features.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, West, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Deep Persistent Slabs
A persistent slab problem formed by a crust down 140-200 cm has created a low likelihood, high consequence scenario that is difficult to forecast. This deeply buried weak layer has produced a number of large and surprising avalanches over the past two weeks. This problem is most likely to be triggered from thin or variable snowpack depth on wind-affected features, ridge crests, and near rocky outcroppings. The same feature or path can slide repeatedly when the persistent weak layer is reloaded with new snow.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 18th, 2022 4:00PM
