Avalanche Forecast

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

A relatively weak system is expected to reach the region Friday overnight bringing light snowfall for Saturday. A ridge of high pressure is expected to establish by Saturday evening which should bring dry conditions for Sunday morning before the next system arrives Sunday afternoon. 

Friday night: Mainly cloudy with a chance of isolated flurries, moderate to strong SW wind, freezing levels around 1000-1200 m. 

Saturday: Snowfall 5-15 cm, strong SW wind, freezing levels reaching around 1200-1400 m.

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud in the morning, cloudy in the afternoon with light snowfall, moderate SW wind, freezing levels reaching around 1000 m.

Sunday night: Snowfall 15-25 cm, strong SW wind, freezing levels around 1000 m.

Monday: Light snowfall, moderate to strong SW wind, freezing levels reaching around 1400 m.

On Thursday, observations were very limited in the region due to the conditions but a natural avalanche cycle up to size 3 was reported southwest of Valemount. 

On Wednesday, numerous natural wind slabs up to size 2 were reported south of Valemount on a variety of aspects above 1800 m which were typically 30 cm thick. Further west, a skier remotely triggered a size 2 wind slab on a north aspect at treeline which was 40 cm thick. 

Recent observations have been very limited in the region and much of the following is extrapolated from the North Columbia and North Rockies regions. A thin new surface crust is expected to extend at least 1700 m elevation in the south of the region and around 1500 m in the north. Up to 10 cm of recent storm snow has now likely buried this crust. At higher elevations, 20-40 cm of recent storm snow is settling rapidly with the mild temperatures and is expected to be most reactive in wind loaded terrain. In the south of the region, this recent storm snow overlies the January 10 interface which may include weak facets and/or surface hoar. Another layer of facets from early January may be found down 50-90 cm but has not been reactive recently. The early-December crust/facet interface can typically be found down 50-150 cm but has been dormant recently and is no longer expected to be creating an avalanche problem in the region. 

• Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
• Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.
• Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.