Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the complexity of the snowpack’s structure. Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

We’re entering a rather quiet weather period with coolish temps and no significant snowfall expected, at least through boxing day. The region should see winds pick up later in the week and there is potential for a small shot of snow Thursday night, and then another one on Saturday.

CHRISTMAS EVE: Freezing level at valley bottom, light variable wind, no significant precipitation expected.

CHRISTMAS: Broken cloud cover with clearing expected after lunch, freezing level at valley bottom, light northwest wind, no significant precipitation expected.

BOXING DAY: A few clouds in the morning, cloud cover building to broken by sundown, freezing level at valley bottom, moderate to strong south/southwest wind, trace of snow possible during the day, potential for 5 to 10 cm by Friday morning.

FRIDAY: Broken cloud cover in the morning, steadily clearing through the day, freezing level at valley bottom, moderate to strong west/southwest wind, trace of snow possible during the day.

There is a notable weak layer of surface hoar that is down 40-100 cm and human triggering remains likely. Treat this layer with caution and choose conservative terrain.

No new activity was reported on Monday.

On Sunday, there were reports of numerous natural and explosives triggered avalanches up to size 2.5

On Saturday, there were a few reports of natural and human triggered avalanches up to size 2. Check out this MIN report detailing the touchy conditions found in the Allan Creek area on Saturday.

On Friday, there were a few reports of natural and human triggered avalanches. Check out this great MIN report from Allan Creek that outlines reactive storm slab conditions. Here is another great MIN report about similar conditions further north in the region.

The Cariboos have seen up to 70 cm of new snow over the past week, with most of it falling between Thursday afternoon and Saturday morning.

40-100 cm of snow is now sitting on a widespread layer of feathery surface hoar crystals. This layer has been responsible for several recent avalanches in the region. There is some uncertainty as to whether or not this layer will gain strength in the near future and so it should be treated with caution.

A weak layer formed in late November is now buried around 1 m or more below the surface. This is the layer of concern relating to the persistent slab avalanche problem. The weak layer may present as surface hoar, a crust, facets or a combination, depending on elevation and aspect.

• Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
• Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
• Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeply buried weak layers resulting in very large avalanches.