Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cariboos.
30+ cm of new snow is expected by Sunday morning which will likely result in two things:
1. A touchy storm slab problem.
2. Potentially wake up the persistent slab problem.
Choose simple terrain Sunday as the snowpack adjusts to the load of new snow.
Confidence
Low - Uncertainties in both the snowpack structure and the weather forecast limit our confidence.
Weather Forecast
Saturday Night’s storm should offer the Cariboos a nice re-fresh before we move into a period of high pressure next week.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Freezing level around 1400 m, strong southwest wind, 5 to 20 cm of snow possible.
SUNDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level around 1200 m, moderate to strong west/northwest wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible.
MONDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level around 700 m, light variable wind, trace of snow possible.
TUESDAY: Scattered cloud cover initially, clearing in the afternoon, freezing level at valley bottom, light variable wind, no significant precipitation expected.
Avalanche Summary
No recent avalanche activity has been reported. A natural avalanche cycle is possible Saturday Night as storm snow begins to stack up on a weak and variable snowpack.
Snowpack Summary
As of Saturday afternoon the storm has produced 10 to 15 cm of new snow with light southwest wind. Winter is slowly descending to the valleys with about 90 to 120 cm of snow present around 2000 m.
There are likely a variety of crusts in our young snowpack, but a problematic rain crust down about 50 cm is beginning to stand out. This "October Crust" is showing sudden & repeatable results when subjected to snowpack tests. Avalanches failing on this interface have the potential to be large and could easily surprise users who are getting out onto snow for the first time this season. There's a great "pre-weekend-storm" summary of conditions at Allan Creek here.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
By Sunday morning there could be up to 35 cm of new snow in favored locations. Wind is expected to pick up Saturday night into Sunday which will likely form slabs, especially in wind exposed terrain at and above treeline.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Persistent Slabs
A buried crust found in the middle of the snowpack is likely being pushed to it's limit by all of the new storm snow and is likely sensitive to human triggering. Avalanches failing on this interface could step down to the ground, especially in places of smooth ground cover like grassy slopes, rock slabs, glacial ice, etc.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 2.5