Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 13th, 2015 4:32PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Dry.

rupert wedgwood, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Winter has arrived with the first large storm. Use caution until the snowpack has had time to settle out.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Overnight on Friday and into Saturday morning another 20cm of new snow is forecast. Winds will decrease and shift from the west to south. The freezing level will drop to 1000 m.

Snowpack Summary

Snow depths are highly variable between elevation ranges and East to West across the region. Greater depths can be found in the Columbia Icefields area. During the past 24hrs 45cm of new snow has effectively doubling the snowpack. Moderate to strong ridge top westerly winds are building soft slabs on top of a faceted and shallow previous snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

The new snow and winds has created an avalanche cycle at treeline and above. Below treeline snow depths are very shallow. Soft slab avalanches can be triggered close to treeline up to size 2. Large avalanches are likely higher in the alpine. Point release avalanches can be expected from cliffs and running into the timber along gulley features

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Saturday

Problems

Storm Slabs

45 cm of storm snow in the past 24hr in the Icefields area has fallen on a shallow early season older snowpack of facets, crusts and possibly surface hoar. A class 2 was seen near the Weeping Wall.

Expect heavy trailbreaking until the storm snow settles out.Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Recent storm snow has formed touchy slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Dry

45cm of new snow at 2000m and above. Point releases from cliffs and steep smooth surfaces.

Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.Be very cautious with gully features.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Nov 14th, 2015 4:00PM