Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 15th, 2018 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Loose Dry, Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

max darrah, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Pacific air will continue to override cooler air in the valleys producing a temperature inversion through to Tuesday. Winds should remain light from the SW through Monday until late in the day Tuesday when they will increase and potentially bring some light flurries or rain. 10mm of precipitation with moderate SW winds expected to arrive mid-week.

Snowpack Summary

10-15cm of recent snow has blown into thin slabs TL and above. Although the mid-pack Dec 15 layer of concern has not been reactive in test profiles (nor has it been tied to any recent avalanche activity in the Jasper area), we are still monitoring this interface closely. There is still a distinct crust (Nov 17) in the lower third of the snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

Another pulse of natural loose dry point releases was observed today in the Columbia Icefield area and in the Maligne Valley. These slides were mostly out of steep, solar facing terrain. Field teams did not observe any new slab avalanches avalanches.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Loose Dry

Natural point release avalanches continued on Monday - loose dry on NE aspects and loose wet on solar aspects. This natural activity is expected to continue on Tuesday.

Avoid ice climbs exposed to steep rocky terrain on solar aspects during the middle of the day.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Wind Slabs

The recent snow was redistributed into thin, spotty slabs in exposed areas. These slabs sit on freshly buried, weak facets and surface hoar in some areas.

Watch for surface cracking and stiffer surface layers of snow.Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Isolated slab avalanches to size 2 were reported by field teams, which were triggered by loose snow avalanches from the cliffs above the start zones.

Carefully evaluate big terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 16th, 2018 4:00PM