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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 15th, 2023–Jan 16th, 2023
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Avoid shallow, rocky start zones and wind loaded terrain. Uncertainty about deeper weak layers demands vigilance, and careful terrain selection. Reactive wind slabs may still exist.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, a small, rider triggered avalanche occurred east of Kispiox. It was below and alpine ridge feature, and it started as a thin slab that stepped down to a layer of weak sugary crystals that were buried on December 23rd.

Snowpack Summary

In terrain sheltered from the wind, 20-50 cm of recent snow overlies a layer of weak, feathery surface hoar crystals buried on January 11th. Below 900 m and on slopes facing the sun, this new snow overlies a thin crust. Recent moderate southerly wind has stripped exposed ridges, and fed wind slab formation in lee terrain features.

Several persistent weak layers may be found in the top meter of the snowpack. These include a surface hoar layer buried on Dec 28 found 40 to 80 cm deep and a facet layer buried on Dec 23 found 60 to 100 cm deep. In alpine terrain, triggering one of these layers is most likely on steep rocky slopes where they present as facets. In treeline terrain, the layers are most likely triggered on steep slopes in open trees where they present as preserved surface hoar.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Mostly cloudy. 0-2 cm of snow expected. Light southwest wind. Treeline temperature around -5°C.

Monday

Cloudy. No new snow expected. Light southwest wind. Treeline temperature around -5°C, closer to -10°C in the north of the region.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy. 5cm of snow expected. Alpine wind moderate to strong from the southeast.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy. 10-20 cm of snow expected overnight and through the day. Alpine wind moderate to strong from the southeast, becoming lighter by the end of the day.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Be aware of the potential for surprisingly large avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.
  • Use conservative route selection and resist venturing out into complex terrain.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Triggering persistent slab avalanches remains possible due to several weak layers in the top metre of the snowpack. Facet layers are the primary concern in alpine terrain, while preserved surface hoar layers are the concern in treeline terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Wind Slabs

Recent southerly wind formed wind slabs in lee terrain. Keep in mind that a wind slab release could also act as a trigger for the deeply buried late-December weak layer.

Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2