Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 26th, 2015 8:11AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs, Loose Wet and Wind Slabs.

triley, Avalanche Canada

South Rockies.

Strong solar radiation may result in large natural avalanches releasing down to a deeply buried weak layer.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Record warming on Monday should cool slightly on Tuesday as the ridge of high pressure begins to break down. Expect high overcast skies with periods of sunshine on Tuesday combined with moderate Southwest winds and freezing levels slowly descending from 3000 metres to around 2500 metres. High overcast is forecast for Wednesday with light winds and freezing levels around 1600 metres. The freezing levels should drop down to valley bottoms by Thursday morning. Expect valley cloud and a high overcast layer during the day on Thursday.

Avalanche Summary

In the Hosmer area on Monday several slab avalanches size 2.0-3.0 were observed on South aspects in the alpine in a shallow snowpack area, one of these had a wide propagation of approximately 2 kilometres. Recent natural wind-triggered slabs of size 1-2 were observed in the Elk Valley on Saturday on lee and cross-loaded slopes. Cornices were also building. In the SE of the region, a natural size 2 slab failed on the Dec crust at 1800 m on a south aspect. Loose wet natural avalanches to size 1.5 were also observed.Nearby in the Lizard region, there have been several concerning human-triggered avalanches on the mid-Dec layer and two very large avalanches on the Nov persistent weak layer. Check the Lizard/Flathead bulletin for more info. Until we have more observations from the South Rockies to build our confidence, assume that further deep persistent slab avalanches are possible, especially while experiencing unseasonably warm temperatures.

Snowpack Summary

Record warm temperatures may have resulted in moist snow and an isothermal snowpack at lower elevations on Monday. High freezing levels (above mountain tops) are rapidly settling 10-20 cm of recent snow which overlies a rain crust to 1900m, facets, and/or surface hoar. The mid-December crust/facet layer is down 40-80cm. Tests indicate that this layer is still reactive in some areas. Isolated large avalanches continue to release on this interface. In shallow snowpack areas, the mid-December crust is breaking down through the faceting process. Closer to the ground a crust/facet interface that formed in November is generally dormant but may still be reactive in isolated areas. In some places the basal snowpack consists entirely of sugary facets. Below treeline, the snowpack is shallow and weak in many places.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Record warm temperatures and very high freezing levels may result in deep persistent slab avalanches releasing naturally from strong solar radiation or cornice falls, and continuing to be sensitive to human triggers.

Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack where triggering could be more likely.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

2 - 5

Loose Wet

Forecast warm temperatures overnight and the chance for periods of strong solar radiation may result in continued moist or wet loose snow avalanches.

Be cautious of loose wet or wet slab sluffing in steep terrain.>Minimize exposure to sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.>Cornices become weak with heating, so give them a wide berth.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Wind Slabs

Recent windslabs may continue to be reactive to human triggers. Very high freezing levels (above mountain tops) and record high temperatures may have already settled and bonded some of the wind transported snow.

Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 27th, 2015 2:00PM