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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 31st, 2024–Feb 1st, 2024
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Until cold temperatures lock in this warm and wet snowpack, dangerous avalanche conditions and poor riding quality will exist.

Human triggered avalanches are possible.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred over the past three days. Numerous large (size 2-3.5) wet slab, persistent slab, and wet loose avalanches have been reported from all aspects and elevations.

Until colder temperatures arrive and stabilize the snowpack, rider-triggered avalanches remain likely. Avoid overhead exposure, very large natural avalanches are possible and have the potential to run to valley bottom.

Snowpack Summary

A thin, breakable crust exists above 2300 m with moist snow under the crust. Wet, saturated snow 2200 m and below.

The stress of the new load (warm, wet upper snowpack) has been actively producing large slab avalanches failing down to the early/mid January persistent weak crust/facet layer (30-70 cm down) and the early December rain crust/ facet layer (100+ cm down).

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Cloudy, a trace of new snow in the alpine, treeline temperatures near 3°C, south alpine wind 20 gusting to 45 km/h, freezing level around 2200 m.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, light rain/ snow amounts, southwest alpine wind 20 to 35 km/h, freezing level around 2200 m.

Friday

Cloudy with snow 10-15 cm, treeline temperatures near -2°C, southerly alpine wind 10 to 20 km/h, freezing levels near 1800 m.

Saturday

Mix of sun and cloud, a trace of new snow, treeline temperatures near -4°C, southwest alpine wind 10 to 25 km/h, freezing level valley 1000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.
  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Several layers of concern exist in the top 150 cm of the snowpack. Elevated freezing levels have made these layers more reactive.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Wet Slabs

Wet slab and wet loose avalanches are likely when the upper snowpack is saturated from rain and prolonged elevated freezing levels.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3