Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 31st, 2024 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Persistent Slabs and Wet Slabs.

Avalanche Canada swerner, Avalanche Canada

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Until cold temperatures lock in this warm and wet snowpack, dangerous avalanche conditions and poor riding quality will exist.

Human triggered avalanches are possible.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred over the past three days. Numerous large (size 2-3.5) wet slab, persistent slab, and wet loose avalanches have been reported from all aspects and elevations.

Until colder temperatures arrive and stabilize the snowpack, rider-triggered avalanches remain likely. Avoid overhead exposure, very large natural avalanches are possible and have the potential to run to valley bottom.

Snowpack Summary

A thin, breakable crust exists above 2300 m with moist snow under the crust. Wet, saturated snow 2200 m and below.

The stress of the new load (warm, wet upper snowpack) has been actively producing large slab avalanches failing down to the early/mid January persistent weak crust/facet layer (30-70 cm down) and the early December rain crust/ facet layer (100+ cm down).

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Cloudy, a trace of new snow in the alpine, treeline temperatures near 3°C, south alpine wind 20 gusting to 45 km/h, freezing level around 2200 m.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, light rain/ snow amounts, southwest alpine wind 20 to 35 km/h, freezing level around 2200 m.

Friday

Cloudy with snow 10-15 cm, treeline temperatures near -2°C, southerly alpine wind 10 to 20 km/h, freezing levels near 1800 m.

Saturday

Mix of sun and cloud, a trace of new snow, treeline temperatures near -4°C, southwest alpine wind 10 to 25 km/h, freezing level valley 1000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.
  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs

Several layers of concern exist in the top 150 cm of the snowpack. Elevated freezing levels have made these layers more reactive.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1.5 - 3

Wet Slabs

An icon showing Wet Slabs

Wet slab and wet loose avalanches are likely when the upper snowpack is saturated from rain and prolonged elevated freezing levels.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Feb 1st, 2024 4:00PM

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