Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Wednesday

On Wednesday morning a strong winter storm will arrive on the BC coast.  Rather warm air and precipitation is expected to spread into the interior Wednesday afternoon resulting in snowfall through Thursday evening.  The freezing level should fall back towards valley bottom Thursday night.  Friday and Saturday look cool and calm with another system set to move into the interior on Sunday.  WEDNESDAY:  Broken cloud cover, freezing level rising to around 1200 m, moderate to strong south/southwest wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible in the afternoon, 2 to 8 cm possible Wednesday night.THURSDAY:  Broken cloud cover, freezing level around 1500 m, moderate to strong southwest wind, trace of snow possible. FRIDAY:  Scattered cloud cover, freezing level beginning at valley bottom rising to around 1400 m in the afternoon, light to moderate southwest wind, no snow expected.

On Monday warm temperatures and direct solar induced natural persistent slab avalanches to size 3.0 on solar aspects between 1600 and 2600 m.  Loose wet avalanches were reported from all aspects to size 2.0. On Sunday loose avalanches were reported from all aspects to size 1.0. On Southwest, south and southeast facing terrain between 1500 m and 2700 m, loose wet avalanches to size 2.5 and persistent slab avalanches to size 2.0 were reported to have failed naturally. A small wind slab was human triggered on a north facing feature just below ridge crest. On Saturday natural avalanches up to size 2.5 were reported on northeast facing features between 1200 m and 1500 m. One small skier triggered avalanche was remotely triggered on a moderately inclined northeast facing alpine feature.

Spotty freezing rain Tuesday may have left a slight "glaze" on the surface which adds to the crust that is being widely reported from many locations, high elevation north is likely one of the few crust-free zones. Fresh surface hoar up to 10 mm in size has been reported to ridgetop . We can probably expect a touchy storm slab to form on this interface as storm totals exceed 10 cm.There are two significant and active Persistent Weak Layers (PWL) that we are monitoring.The first PWL is known as the early January interface, it is 20 to 60 cm below the surface. It is composed of surface hoar on sheltered slopes as well as sun crust on steep solar aspects and is present at all elevation bands. Recent snowpack tests have shown easy to moderate planar results at this interface.The second PWL is the mid-December facet/surface hoar/crust combination that is now buried 50 to 80 cm deep and is most problematic at and below treeline. This interface is not thought to be present in the alpine.  This interface has shown sudden collapse in recent snowpack tests with easy to moderate loads.The November rain crust down 70 to 100 cm is thought to have gone dormant for the time being.