Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Sunday

The forecast has changed since yesterday. Sunday looks to be cloudy with a chance of flurries for the Sea to Sky region. Monday also looks cloudy, but clouds may give way to clear skies on Tuesday. SUNDAY: Overcast, freezing level rising to around 600 m, light southwest wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible.MONDAY: Scattered cloud cover in the morning, increasing cloud throughout the day, freezing level rising to around 700 m, light west/southwest wind, trace of snow possible.TUESDAY: Clear skies, freezing level rising to around 1000 m, light variable wind, no snow expected.

A few human triggered avalanches to size 2.5 were reported Friday. A size 1.5 and second size 2.5 were triggered on southwest facing slopes between 1900 and 2000 m. These likely failed on the February 22nd interface which presents as a crust with surface hoar and/or facets on it. South facing slopes may be where this interface is most reactive. A skier also remote triggered a size 1.5 avalanche on a wind loaded slope of unknown aspect/elevation. On Thursday natural avalanches to size 2.5 were reported on a variety of aspects as the snowpack adjusted to the new snow. Control work produced numerous storm slab and cornice failure avalanches to size 2 on all aspects.On Wednesday soft wind slabs up to 20 in depth were sensitive to human triggering to size 1.5. Wednesday night's storm likely initiated a cycle of natural storm slab avalanche activity.We received a great MIN report on Tuesday of a large snowmobile triggered wind slab avalanche on the Brandywine Glacier that featured a 100 cm crown. More details available here.

The Wednesday night storm produced far more snow than expected, 20 to 45 cm of slightly upside down snow fell across the region accompanied by winds out of the east, southeast and south. In wind exposed terrain the new snow rests on widespread wind damaged snow and wind slabs. In wind sheltered terrain the new snow may be sitting on a thin layer of surface hoar. The February 22nd interface is now down 50 to 70 cm, this layer is composed of old wind slabs, spotty surface hoar, facets and a sun crust on solar aspects. Snowpack testing on Thursday continues to produce planar shears at this interface. As we move into the later half of the weekend south facing slopes will be the most suspect with regard to this layer. Beneath the February 22nd interface the snowpack is well settled and strong. Variable winds in the past month have produced cornices on many ridgelines. They will become touchier as they grow in size, as temperatures rise, and when they are subject to the strong late-winter sun on clear days.