Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected. Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Monday night: Cloudy, isolated flurries, light to moderate southwest winds, alpine temperature -7 C.

Tuesday: Mix of sun and cloud, isolated flurries, light southwest winds, alpine high temperature -4 C, freezing level around 1400 m.

Wednesday: Mix of sun and cloud, moderate southwest winds, alpine high temperature -3 C, freezing level around 1400 m.

Thursday: Mostly clear, light southwest winds, alpine high temperature -1 C, freezing level around 1500 m.

Several recent natural, large (size 2-2.5) wind slab avalanches were reported on over the past 48 hours on northwest through northeast aspects.

On January 16th, a natural, size 2 wind slab stepped down to the deep persistent basal facets below a rock band, details here.

Recent strong west and southwest winds have formed stiff wind slabs on lee and cross-loaded terrain features at upper elevations. 

A crust can be found up to treeline and on solar aspects in the alpine due to previous warming and sun exposure. 

A well consolidated mid-pack overlies a generally weak basal snowpack. The bottom 10-20 cm of the snowpack consists of facets and deteriorating crusts. Although inherently weak, the benign weather pattern this week will likely promote a decreasing trend in reactivity for this avalanche problem. Areas that are most likely to harbor this problem are shallow, rocky start zones. 

• Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
• Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
• If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.