Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 7th, 2020 5:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Storm Slabs.

Avalanche Canada ghelgeson, Avalanche Canada

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A thick crust in place means that avalanche problems are confined to the new snow, this forecast is based on 5 to 15 cm Friday Night, but if we wake up with more than 20 cm Saturday morning bump each danger rating up one level and keep the terrain choices in check.

Summary

Confidence

Low - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

A bit of storm snow Friday Night into Saturday, and then clear skies through the rest of the forecast period.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Freezing level at valley bottom, moderate southwest wind, 5 to 25 cm of snow.

SATURDAY: Overcast, freezing level near valley bottom, light to moderate west/northwest wind, 5 to perhaps as much as 15 cm of snow.

SUNDAY: Clear skies, freezing level rising to 1000 m, light to moderate wind generally out of the west, no significant precipitation expected.

MONDAY: Clear skies, freezing level rising to 1000 m in the afternoon, light northwest wind, no significant precipitation expected.

Avalanche Summary

A few small wind slabs were human triggered Thursday on northeast facing slopes at 1700 m. Loose dry avalanche activity was reported from extreme alpine terrain.

A few small (size 1) wind slab avalanches were triggered by riders on Wednesday. Fragile cornices and one large cornice fall have been reported over the past week.

Snowpack Summary

Variable amounts of wind affected snow sits above a thick rain crust that exists up to roughly 2100 m. In many areas this capping crust extends to mountaintops. Sheltered areas have 10-20 cm of snow above the crust. The bottom 20 cm of the snowpack consists of basal facets and decomposing crusts that have not been an active avalanche problem since December, but could reemerge as a problem after sustained warming.

Terrain and Travel

  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.
  • Recent new snow may be hiding windslabs that were easily visible before the snow fell.
  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

Storm slabs will begin to form above a widespread crust. Although not expected to be a long term problem, storm slabs may be fast and very sensitive to natural and human triggering Saturday. The best bet is to scale back the terrain choices as the storm snow exceeds 20 cm.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Feb 8th, 2020 5:00PM

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