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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 18th, 2014–Jan 19th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Jasper.

Cooler temperatures are incrementally improving stability. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding and conservative decisions should be your mantra. Shallow spots will remain the likely trigger spots.

Weather Forecast

-12 Sunday night followed by clear skies, light west winds, and daytime temperatures ranging from -5 to -11. Monday to Wednesday will be scattered clouds and temperatures from -2 to -10.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temperatures are promoting settlement. BTL is a little more supportive but it remains the weakest of our elevation bands as not much bridges the basal facets. TL and above, wind slabs are present. Stability tests range from very easy to moderate sudden collapse on the basal facets.   

Avalanche Summary

Visibility was excellent on Saturday. A couple lower elevation solar facing steep gullies slid to size 2 but otherwise, little else noted. Thursday's control work on the Icefields Parkway yielded large avalanches to size 3 on all alpine aspects releasing on either the storm snow interface or on basal facets.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

The basal facets are weaker below tree line as many whumphs noted. Where the snow is deeper at higher elevations, the mid-pack is bridging the weak basal facets; however, snowpack depth varies so much that its hard to inspire confidence in stability.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.Be aware of the potential for wide propagations.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs of variable thickness and hardness dot the landscape. Many windpressed and stripped features will be encountered once you leave the shelter of the trees. Triggering this could dig down to the basal facets increasing the consequence.
Avoid cross loaded features.Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3