Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 26th, 2016 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Persistent Slabs, Loose Wet and Cornices.

deryl kelly, Parks Canada

Jasper.

http://www.pc.gc.ca/apps/links/goto_e.asp?destination=Back-country users. Accept that our persistent weakness will be with us to the end of the season. Adjust your spring skiing expectations accordingly!

Summary

Weather Forecast

Flurries expected by Sunday night in the Icefields with forecasted snow amount of 8cms. Rain or wet flurries below 1800ms. Slow progress into spring for the areas around the Divide but, next week shows great promise for warm sunny spring skiing and goggle tan enthusiasts.Â

Snowpack Summary

Moist surface snow and a strengthening mid-pack as the snowpack settles into spring at TL and BTL on solar aspects. Good overnight recovery with temps to almost -10 and rising 0 in the alpine. Significant variation in snowpack depth through-out the forecast area with a large proportion being shallow and valley bottoms below 1800m in spring bloom.

Avalanche Summary

Field teams in the Icefields area reporting several loose wet slides on solar aspects in the south end of the park. One sz 2.5 on a SW'ly aspect near the Boundary. Large serac collapse on the north glacier of Mt. Athabasca. Debris running 100ms wide x 300ms long and does not appear to have triggered any slab in the surrounding snowpack.

Confidence

Problems

Persistent Slabs

This problem has been most active in the Whistler/Portal Creek area but is widespread through the forecast region. When triggered, it will be big with serious consequences. Warm and sunny conditions will increase this danger.

Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.Minimize exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach run out zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

Loose Wet

This problem is subject to intense periods of solar radiation. In shallow snowpack spots and sunny conditions, the danger rating will rapidly increase.

Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.Avoid ice climbs that are exposed to steep rocky terrain on solar aspects.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Cornices

Some cornice failures are being noted. It can act as a large trigger initiating deep weaknesses plus their sheer mass, whether or not it initiates an avalanche, would be like being hit by a car.

Avoid slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if they have large cornices overhead.Minimize exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach run out zones.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Mar 27th, 2016 4:00PM