Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 3rd, 2012 8:53AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.

Avalanche Canada ccampbell, Avalanche Canada

Summary

Confidence

Good - -1

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Continued light snowfall picking up in the evening, with moderate to strong southwesterly winds, and freezing levels as high as 2000m in the morning before dropping to 1000m late in the day. Thursday: 5-15cm possible by the morning, then light snowfall throughout the day with freezing levels in valley bottoms and light, but gusty, westerly winds. Friday: Generally dry with isolated flurries possible.

Avalanche Summary

There are two new reports of skiers remotely triggering avalanches running on the mid-December surface hoar. One was relatively small on a steep lee slope triggered from a ridge 10m away. The other was a 30-80cm thick Size 2 that was triggered by a cornice fall, which was remotely triggered from a skier 3m away on the ridge crest.

Snowpack Summary

New snow and gusty winds are keeping wind slabs and cornices fresh and weak, and in some places buried old wind slabs are a concern. Compression tests have been producing easy to moderate sudden results on the mid-December surface hoar, down 30-80cm, and propagation tests have shown that avalanches associated with this persistent slab have a high propensity to propagate over large areas. Continued warm temperatures will likely make persistent slabs particularly touchy on Wednesday, before colder temperatures start to lock things up later in the forecast period. Basal facets and depth hoar remain a concern in shallow rocky areas.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
Warm temperatures on Wednesday could make persistent slabs particularly sensitive to human triggers.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

3 - 5

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Be alert for wind slabs below ridge crests, behind terrain features, and in cross-loaded gullies. New cornices may be weakly bonded and likely to break off.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 5

Valid until: Jan 4th, 2012 8:00AM