Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 19th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
TRettie,
Avalanche Canada
Carefully assess the amount of new snow. The avalanche hazard will likely be greatest in the southern part of the region where forecasted snowfall amounts are greatest.
Summary
Confidence
Low - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system.
Weather Forecast
Saturday night: low of -6 at 1500m. light flurries in the north bringing trace amounts of snow. Moderate to heavy precipitation in the south bringing up to 25cm of snow. Light west winds.
Sunday: a mix of sun and cloud with light flurries bringing trace amounts in the north and light northerly winds. Cloudy in the south with up to 10cm of snow and light westerly winds. High of -4 at 1500m.Â
Monday: a mix of sun and cloud with no new snow expected. Light north winds. High of -10 at 1500m.
Tuesday: mostly sunny with no new snow expected. Light moderate north winds and a high of -11 at 1500m.
Avalanche Summary
We suspect that rider triggerable storm and wind slabs will be found throughout the region on Monday.
On Friday one skier controlled size one wind slab avalanche was reported in the south of the region. This avalanche ran on the mid February crust.
On Thursday one size one skier triggered avalanche was reported in the north part of the region. It was on a cross loaded feature at treeline.
Snowpack Summary
New snow accompanied by southwest winds on Saturday will likely have formed storm and wind slabs.
20 to 40cm sits above the mid February crust. The melt-freeze crust is reported to exist on all aspects and elevations except for high elevation polar aspects in the north of the region. Facets and surface hoar can be found above the crust in the north of the region.Â
The late-January crust/facet/surface hoar interface is buried down 40 to 100cm. This layer was most reactive between 1700 m and 2000 m in the north of the region. While this layer now appears to be dormant in many parts of the region it may be possible to trigger with a heavy load or in shallow snowpack areas at upper treeline and lower alpine features on north aspects.
Terrain and Travel
- Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
- Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.
Problems
Storm Slabs
New storm and wind slabs will likely have formed on Saturday. These slabs will be largest and most reactive in the southern part of the region where forecasted snowfall amounts are greatest.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
The late-January weak layer is down 40 to 100cm and was most reactive between 1700 and 2000 m in the north of the region. It is now likely dormant in most areas, especially where there is a supportive crust above.
Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 20th, 2022 4:00PM
