Avalanche Forecast

High

A dry ridge of high pressure will develop over the region bringing clear skies for Thursday and Friday. Increased cloud is forecast for Saturday. Ridgetop winds will be light to moderate from the northwest on Thursday morning, and then become light for the rest of the forecast period. Freezing levels will hover around 1200m on Thursday, 1400m on Friday and 1800m on Saturday.

On Monday, 2 sledders were killed in an avalanche near Blue River. We still have very little information about the incident. More details will be made public as they become available. In recent days, a smaller surface avalanche stepped down and triggered a size 3 slab on a southwest facing slope at treeline. The late February surface hoar layer was the likely weak layer associated with this avalanche. This illustrates the potentially touchy and destructive nature of the late February interface. As stormy weather tapers-off and a dry ridge builds over the province, solar radiation will become the driver for natural avalanche activity.

On lee features at treeline and in the alpine light amounts of new snow overlie older wind slabs while intermittent sunny skies have likely promoted a melt-freeze cycle on some sun-exposed slopes. 50-100cm below the surface you'll find a persistent weak layer comprised of surface hoar, facets and/or a thick crust. This layer seems variably reactive. In other words, it's still really touchy in some places while in other spots it's really tough to trigger, and there's not much of a reliable pattern telling us what exact aspects are most suspect. I'd continue to be suspicious of steep, unsupported features at treeline and in the alpine as this layer has the potential for very large avalanches. Below this interface, the snowpack is generally gaining strength. At ridgetop, cornices are huge and could become increasingly touchy with forecast solar radiation.