Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Due to limited field observations for the entire period

The wind is expected to build out of the west during the day on Monday and some light precipitation is forecast by Tuesday morning. Another weak ridge of high pressure is forecast to move into the interior ranges on Tuesday that should end the precipitation, but probably won't dry most areas up enough to see the sun. Gusty westerly winds are expected to develop overnight and rain showers and flurries should start by mid-day and continue into Wednesday night. Thursday is forecast to be unsettled with gusty southwest winds and periods of rain showers and flurries at higher elevations.

Spring conditions exist in the region. Exposure to the sun, warm temperatures, and periods of rain are the most likely factors to influence the avalanche danger. If the temperatures go below freezing overnight, strong crusts should develop that are likely to hold the snowpack together. If the sun shines for a few hours, the crusts may break down quickly and moist surface snow avalanches may start running naturally. Continued warming from more sun, rain, or no overnight freeze, may cause surface avalanches to step down and trigger deeper wet slab avalanches. Prolonged warming may cause very deep releases on weak layers that were deposited early in the season, or on depth hoar that developed during the winter. It is important to monitor the temperature and the freezing levels as they may change rapidly from day to day.

Last week, very warm temperatures affected all but the highest north facing slopes. Since Thursday morning, mostly light to locally moderate amounts of new snow have fallen forming soft slabs on the resulting crust while rain has continued to penetrate and weaken the snowpack at lower elevations. Up to 80cm below the surface, you will find another crust in the alpine and at treeline that may have been reactive with warming throughout last week. The mid-February buried surface hoar layer is down about 200 cm, although avalanches releasing on this layer represent an extremely low probability-high consequence scenario. Cornices in the region are very large. With spring temperatures, these are more likely to become weak and fail. They could provide a large enough trigger to release deep layers on slopes below.