Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Synopsis: A trough of moist air will push across the Province on Saturday and Sunday bringing clouds and precipitation.Tonight: Cloudy with flurries. 5 to 10cm precipitation in the forecast for the region, daytime freezing level around 1500m, winds moderate from the south west.Sunday: Cloudy with flurries. Trace of precipitation, for the region, freezing levels around 1400m, winds, light gusting moderate to strong from the southwest.Monday: Cloudy with light to locally moderate flurries, some parts of the region may see 25cm of precipitation. Freezing level around 2200m, winds moderate, gusting to strong from the south.Tuesday: Cloudy with flurries. Light to locally moderate precipitation amounts. Freezing levels remain high at around 2100 metres, winds generally light occasionally gusting to strong from the south west.

Avalanche activity has slowed down considerably, but yesterday, a commercial operator reported a size 3.5 natural avalanche, on a north aspect, initiating near ridge top in recent storm snow, then stepping down to the Oct./Nov. basal facets and running full path. With incoming precipitation, strong winds and rising temperatures in the forecast, we expect avalanche activity to ramp up  on Sunday and early in the next week. There is real concern that persistent weak layers will become more reactive with rising temperatures and solar warming. This spring, a low probability, high consequence avalanche problem plagues the Columbia regions. Highly destructive and largely unpredictable avalanches are possible right now.

Recent mild temperatures have contributed to a generally well-settled upper snow pack. Wind slabs have been forming in lee terrain on NW through E aspects at tree line and above as a result of moderate to strong upper level winds associated with the new snow.  Stability will decrease with daytime warming.Three persistent weaknesses to be aware of:A mid-March sun crust/surface hoar layer down 50-80cm has potential for human-triggering in select locations( New wind slabs have been formed on this layer).An early-March crust/facet/surface hoar layer down around 80-120cm has become less susceptible to human-triggers, but still has the potential to produce large avalanches. We've received recent reports of avalanches stepping down to this layer. A mid-February crust/facet/surface hoar layer that we've been watching is now down around 1.5m and still producing sudden planar shears in snow pit tests. Although direct triggering of this weak layer has become less likely, a large load like a cornice failure or smaller avalanches gaining mass could trigger this layer and produce very a large and destructive avalanche.