Avalanche Forecast

Poor - Freezing levels are uncertain

Synopsis: Unseasonably mild Pacific air moves into the region in the wake of the exiting storm system. The models are currently showing an Above Freezing air mass between 1200m and 3200m with temps between 0c and +4c on Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday: Freezing Level: Valley Bottom, Above Freezing Layer 1200 to 3200m; Precipitation: Nil; Wind: Treeline: Light, SW | Ridgetop: Moderate, W.Thursday: Freezing Level: Valley Bottom, Above Freezing Layer 1500 to 3200m; Precipitation: Nil; Wind: Treeline: Light, SW | Ridgetop: Moderate, W.Friday: Freezing Level: Valley Bottom; Precipitation: Nil; Wind: Treeline: Light, Variable | Ridgetop: Moderate, NW.

On Monday storm slabs ran on all aspects/elevations to size 2.5. Many of the reported avalanches started in the storm snow and then stepped down to the mid-December crust/ surface hoar interface.

30 - 60 cm fell across the region over the last 48 hours with moderate southwest winds shifting these accumulations into deeper deposits in lee terrain. Warm temps, with the potential for a little rain will likely keep the storm storm slab sensitive to light triggers. The new snow overlies a variety of old surfaces which include heavily wind-affected surfaces in exposed locations, faceted powder and buried surface hoar in sheltered terrain. Up to 100 cm below the surface, you'll likely find a touchy weak layer of surface hoar sitting on a thick rain crust. This widespread persistent weakness exists at all elevation bands, and continues to be the primary layer of concern for the region. With the recent load of storm snow, I expect this layer to remain active with the potential for large and destructive avalanches. At the base of the snowpack, a crust/facet combo appears to have gone dormant for the time being.