Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Nov 24th, 2017 3:00PM
The alpine rating is Loose Wet.
, the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems includeIf the rain-soaked snow freezes as expected on the weekend, avalanche hazard will follow a decreasing trend until more snow falls late Sunday. Please treat this forecast as an initial assessment, as we have little information at this time.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Due to the number of field observations
Weather Forecast
We're looking at relatively benign weather until Sunday afternoon, when a brief but intense cold front will bring rain and then 10-15cm snow by Sunday night. Saturday: Dry. Freezing levels initially around 1500 m, but increasing later in the day. Light southwesterly winds, increasing in the afternoon.Sunday: Rain early afternoon changing to flurries (10-15 cm possible). Freezing levels 2200m decreasing to surface by the evening. Winds moderate southerly. Monday: Scattered flurries. Freezing level around 1200 m. Moderate westerly winds.
Avalanche Summary
Several loose wet avalanches to Size 3 (some digging to ground) were reported at the end of the rain event. Whether avalanches are still running is a different question and unfortunately the weather and lack of observers is making that hard to determine. I'd expect a decrease in avalanche activity with cooling temperatures on the weekend.
Snowpack Summary
The tropical punch during the week dropped upwards of 80mm rain (that's over 3 inches!) and resulted in a widespread wet upper snowpack. The freezing level rose to close to 3000 m on Wednesday and Thursday meaning very few places, if any, will have escaped the melt. Cooling temperatures after the rain resulted in widespread crusts which may break down with daytime warming.The last three days have seen the snowpack diminish by 20-30 cm. Below treeline snowpacks are at or below threshold and travel in this elevation band is rugged. Expect treeline snow depths of around 80 cm. A crust that formed around Halloween has been reported from neighboring regions and probably exists in the Lizard-Flathead region too, roughly 50 cm below the surface.
Problems
Loose Wet
Daytime warming may break down the rain crust which formed after the monsoon this week. If you're easily breaking through the crust or are traveling in soft mushy snow, loose wet avalanches are possible.
Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.Conditions are improving, but be mindful in areas that still have soft mushy snow.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Nov 25th, 2017 2:00PM