Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

We're looking at relatively benign weather until Sunday afternoon, when a brief but intense cold front will bring rain and then 10-15cm snow by Sunday night. Saturday: Dry. Freezing levels initially around 1500 m, but increasing later in the day. Light southwesterly winds, increasing in the afternoon.Sunday: Rain early afternoon changing to flurries (10-15 cm possible). Freezing levels 2200m decreasing to surface by the evening. Winds moderate southerly. Monday: Scattered flurries. Freezing level around 1200 m. Moderate westerly winds.

Several loose wet avalanches to Size 3 (some digging to ground) were reported at the end of the rain event. Whether avalanches are still running is a different question and unfortunately the weather and lack of observers is making that hard to determine. I'd expect a decrease in avalanche activity with cooling temperatures on the weekend.

The tropical punch during the week dropped upwards of 80mm rain (that's over 3 inches!) and resulted in a widespread wet upper snowpack. The freezing level rose to close to 3000 m on Wednesday and Thursday meaning very few places, if any, will have escaped the melt. Cooling temperatures after the rain resulted in widespread crusts which may break down with daytime warming.The last three days have seen the snowpack diminish by 20-30 cm. Below treeline snowpacks are at or below threshold and travel in this elevation band is rugged. Expect treeline snow depths of around 80 cm. A crust that formed around Halloween has been reported from neighboring regions and probably exists in the Lizard-Flathead region too, roughly 50 cm below the surface.