Avalanche Forecast

High - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

SATURDAY NIGHT: 10 to 20 cm new snow. Freezing level around 800 m. Moderate southerly winds.SUNDAY: 15 to 35 cm new snow depending if you're in a snow-hole or not. Freezing level around 1200 m. Strong southerly winds.MONDAY: Another 10 to 20 cm new snow. Freezing level dropping back to around 1000 m. Moderate southwesterly winds.TUESDAY: Storm continues, new snow accumulations continue with another 20 or 30 cm forecast. Freezing level steady around 1000 m. Moderate southwest winds.

Last week's widespread natural avalanche cycle is slowing down. On Friday most reported avalanches were size 2 to 2.5 with crowns reported from 60 to 150 cm thick on all but windward aspects.Human-triggered avalanches were my concern during Saturday's short-lived lull before the next storm ramps up overnight Saturday and really gets going Sunday.

Up to 2 m of snow fell in the series of storms that started a week ago. Extreme southerly winds (up to 180 km/h!) accompanied the storms. Another series of storms is on the doorstep.A crust likely exists on or near the surface at elevations below approximately 1700 m.A weak layer of facets and surface hoar lies below the recent storm snow. Initially, avalanches were reported to be running on this layer. However, recent avalanche activity is running in the storm snow above this layer. Still, the presence of this layer shouldn't be completely discarded, since it could potentially increase expected avalanche size with a large trigger like a cornice collapse.