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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 18th, 2017–Jan 19th, 2017
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the intensity of precipitation amounts in the region. Rising temperatures combined with new snow and wind are pushing the avalanche danger to HIGH.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Strong southwest winds and 10-15 cm of new snow expected overnight with freezing levels dropping to about 1000 metres by morning. Overcast with moderate southwest winds and 5-10 cm of new snow during the day on Thursday as the freezing levels rise to about 1300 metres. Clearing and cooler with light winds on Friday and freezing levels at valley bottom by morning. Mostly clear on Saturday with light winds and temperatures near -10 in the alpine.

Avalanche Summary

Explosive control released storm slabs up to size 2.0 in the alpine that were 10-20 cm deep on Wednesday. Natural avalanches were heard during the day on Wednesday but poor visibility limited observations. Natural wind slabs and natural cornice falls were reported up to size 1.5 on Tuesday. Several natural and human triggered size 1 wind slabs were reported on Monday.

Snowpack Summary

10 cm overnight combined with another 10 cm during the day on Wednesday has developed storm slabs at higher elevations. Recent winds have caused widespread wind affect in exposed alpine and tree line terrain forming touchy wind slabs on lee features. These are now buried by a blanket of new snow. Last week's 20 cm of low density snow buried a variety of old surfaces (wind scoured, old wind slabs, surface hoar up to 20 mm in sheltered terrain, and/or faceted old snow). Deeper in the snowpack, the mid-December persistent weak layer of facets has been more prominent and reactive in the Corbin area than areas closer to Fernie. The layer is generally considered dormant at the moment in deeper snowpack areas, but its status may change as the temperatures warm throughout the week.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Forecast wind and snow continue to develop storm slabs in the alpine and at treeline.
Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.The new snow will requires several days to settle and stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Wet

Rain at lower elevations may result in loose wet avalanches in steep terrain.
Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2