Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Warm air aloft will maintain elevated freezing levels and prevent overnight crust recovery. Moderate gusty west-northwest wind. Overnight ridgetop high temperatures -4C as freezing level drops below 800 m.

SUNDAY: The warm pattern continues with conditions similar to Saturday. Little overnight cooling is expected leading into another day of above 0 C temperatures as high as 2200 m. A possible morning inversion will produce cooler temperatures in the valleys but above freezing temperatures between 1800 and 2000 m. Mostly sunny day with moderate wind from the northwest.

MONDAY: Broken skies, mostly sunny. Decreasing moderate to light northwest wind, temperatures dropping to -8 C, and freezing level dropping to valley bottom.

TUESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Gusty southwest wind. High temperature -6 C. Freezing level at valley bottom.

A widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred on Wednesday with size 2-3 storm and wind slabs observed in alpine terrain. Check out this MIN from our field team.

With current warm temperatures it's worth remembering that during last week's warm storm, a few size 2-2.5 deep persistent slab avalanche were observed near Blue River, as this corner of the region appears to have a similar lingering problem to the neighbouring North Columbia region.

Westerly winds have quickly impacted 20-40 cm of recent storm snow in open areas and upper elevations. A few isolated surface hoar layers have been observed in the upper snowpack (top 100 cm), as well as a thin breakable crust that extends up to 1800 m (under about 20 cm new snow), but we have not seen avalanche activity on these layers.

The lower snowpack is strong and settled in most parts of the region, except the southernmost part of the region around Blue River where there is a deeply buried crust/facet layer that could be exhibiting similar behaviour to the deep persistent slab problem in the neighbouring North Columbia region. This layer is most prevalent at below treeline elevations and has been reactive to heavy triggers like smaller wind slab avalanches that step down to this layer.

• Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the old surface.
• Use small low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow.
• Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.
• Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.