Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Mar 4th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Wind Slabs, Loose Wet and Cornices.
rbuhler,
Avalanche Canada
Watch for new wind slab formation on Saturday at higher elevations. Moderate northerly winds are expected to redistribute the recent storm snow where the snowpack in not capped by a melt-freeze crust.
Summary
Confidence
Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack. Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.
Weather Forecast
A ridge of high pressure brings dry and sunny conditions for the weekend.Â
Friday Night: Mainly clear, light to moderate N wind, freezing levels 600-1000 m.
Saturday: Sunny, moderate N wind, freezing levels reaching around 1500 m.
Sunday: Mainly sunny, moderate to strong N wind, freezing levels reaching around 2000 m with an inversion.
Monday: A mix of sun and cloud, strong NW wind, freezing levels 1500-2000 m.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches observed on Thursday. Poor visibility limited observations. Â
On Tuesday, numerous size 1 wet loose avalanches were reported at below treeline elevations. Poor visibility made for limited alpine observations. Check out this MIN Report for more details at the Mt. Cain area.Â
On Monday, our field team observed widespread natural avalanche activity size 1-2.5. A skier-triggered size 2 storm slab was reported at Mt Cain on Sunday in this MIN.
Snowpack Summary
A melt-freeze crust is now expected to be capping the snowpack below around 1500 m elevation on all aspects and on sun-exposed slopes into the alpine. On north aspects above 1500 m, the snow surface is expected to remain dry and crust-free. In exposed terrain at higher elevations, the recent storm snow may be wind-affected.Â
A melt-freeze crust from mid-February can be found approximately 80 cm beneath the surface with some spotty surface hoar crystals above. Recent snowpack testing suggests the crust is bonding well to the surrounding snow. A strong, well-settled middle and lower snowpack exist below.
Terrain and Travel
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet
- Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
Problems
Wind Slabs
New wind slab formation is expected on Saturday as winds become moderate from the north. Dry snow was reported above 1500 m so wind transport should be expected above that elevation in wind-exposed terrain.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Wet
With each subsequent day of melt-freeze conditions, loose wet avalanches will become less likely. However, extra caution is still recommended on steep sun-exposed slopes during the heat of the afternoon. Where the crust is breaking down or non-existent, loose wet avalanches will be more likely.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Cornices
Looming cornices have grown large during the recent storm. They could still pose a threat from above or below, and are expected to become weak when the sun is at its strongest.
Aspects: North, North East, East.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Mar 5th, 2022 4:00PM
