Avalanche Forecast

50 to 100 cm of new snow has fallen in the past few days. Extreme SW to SE winds transported a significant amount of snow to NE and NW aspects and on to cross loaded features Saturday. At the tail end of Saturday's storm a short lived bit of rain fell below 1300 m followed by clear cold skies. Sunday saw 5 to 15 cm of new snow fall early in the morning with cool temperatures and low winds.

Once again two big snow storms will hit the island this bulletin period, Sunday night Jan 3 into Monday morning Jan 4 and during the day Tuesday Jan 5. Winds will be strong to extreme during these storms, but temperatures will be on the colder side. Monday Jan 4: 15 to 30 cm of new snow falling Sunday night into Monday morning (some of the lower mountain elevations in the southern zones may see a bit of this precip start out as rain due to a slightly higher freezing level/temp). Winds Strong to Extreme SE during the snowfall, dropping to moderate SW. Temps at 1500 m 0 to -5 for central/north island, and + 2 to -4 for south. Freezing levels 1200 dropping to 900 m for central and north, 1700 dropping to 900 m for south.Tuesday Jan 5: 30 to 70 cm of new snow during the day. Winds extreme to strong SE. Temps at 1500 m 0 to -4. Freezing levels 800 to 900 m. Wednesday Jan 6: 5 to 15 cm of new snow. Winds Light to moderate SW to variable. Temps at 1500 m -2 to -5. Freezing levels 1000 to 800 m.

Avoid avalanche terrain after the snow storm Sunday night Jan 3 and during/after the large snowfall coming Tuesday during the day Jan 5. Winds during these two snowfalls will be strong to extreme from the SE, so NW slopes will be especially dangerous due to wind loading.

On average a meter of snow has fallen since Dec 29. The majority of this new snow has fallen with warm temps so it has been moist heavy snow. From approx 1300 m down a bit of rain has mixed in with these snow events. Above 1300 m it has all been snow. Our typical island snowpack did a great job of healing well after the big storms. Conditions certainly seemed to stabilize by Sunday Jan 3 on SE to SW aspects, while the NE to NW aspects (where there was significant wind loading from Saturday Jan 2) seemed to be slower to heal and even saw natural avalanche activity.

• Surface: 5 to 15 cm of new low density powder in sheltered areas, wind effected snow in open zones and ridgetops.
• Upper: 1300 m and below a thin rain crust over storm snow, above 1300 m settling storm snow.
• Mid: Well settled with some old crusts
• Lower: Well settled

Moderate - Many days of field data but at the same time many remote weather stations failed to report.