Avalanche Forecast
Regions: East Island, North Island, South Island, Vancouver Island, West Island.
New low density snow has arrived in our forecast region and will increase the avalanche hazard.
Watch for reactive slabs as you travel through the terrain, especially in areas exposed to the wind.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
On Wednesday, our field team reported a size 2 natural storm slab avalanche and a size 1.5 wind slab avalanche in the northern part of the island. Incoming snow and winds could produce reactive slabs such as these this weekend
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Snowpack Summary
The current storm is excepted to bring another 25 cm of low density snow and this will combine with the 20 to 30 cm that fell earlier this week. Variable winds have and will continue to redistribute this snow so expect to find wind slabs on all aspects.
A crust that formed at the start of this past week can be found 35 to 45 cm down in sheltered areas. This crust is widespread and is expected to exist all the way to mountaintops. In exposed areas, the wind has either covered this crust with a wind slab or has completely scoured the snow off of it. Snow that covered the crust as it was forming is bonding well, this may not be the case for new snow that covers it going forward.
The lower snowpack contains a number of crusts but they are not a factor at the moment. It is consolidated and well-settled.
Weather Summary
Saturday Night
Cloudy, up to 20 cm accumulation, less in the central-eastern sections, winds southwest 35 km/h gusting to 70, treeline temperatures -5 ºC.
Sunday
Clear in the am becoming cloudy, 15 to 25 cm accumulation by morning, winds west 20 km/h gusting to 50, treeline temperatures -5 ºC.
Monday
Cloudy, up to 15 cm accumulation, winds southeast 20 to 40 km/h, treeline temperatures -7 ºC.
Tuesday
Clear, no new accumulation, winds northwest 10 km/h gusting to 20, treeline temperatures -5 ºC.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
- Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Expect our forecast region to see significant snowfall amounts. Storm slabs should be expected.
Strong winds associated with this system will be moving around whatever snow is available so you should also expect deeper-than-expected deposits of snow that will also be reactive.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Loose Dry
Up to 30 cm of new low density light and dry snow overlies a variety of old surfaces from smooth and hard surfaces to 30 cm of low density snow.
Expect that dry loose avalanches will be certain on very steep terrain. Even a small loose dry avalanche can have enough mass to push a person into or over a terrain trap such as a cliff or depression.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Certain
Expected Size: 1 - 2