Avalanche Forecast

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Light scattered precipitation is expected on Saturday with afternoon freezing levels reaching around 1800m and moderate to strong alpine winds from the southwest.  Dry and mainly sunny conditions are forecast for Sunday with afternoon freezing levels around 1500m and light to moderate alpine winds from the southwest.  Unsettled conditions are currently expected for Monday with the possibility of both light scattered flurries and sunny breaks.  Alpine winds are forecast to shift to the northwest and freezing levels are forecast to fall below 1000m. 

On Thursday, a natural size 2 avalanche was reported from steep alpine terrain.  Skiers were also triggering multiple size 1 wind slabs which were typically 30cm thick and 10m wide.  Wind loaded features are expected to be continue to be the primary concern right now but due to a lack of observations, we cannot yet issue avalanche problems or danger ratings for the region. If you are out in the mountains, please send us your observations and help us improve the forecast.

Early season snowpack observations are still very limited in the region but the threshold for avalanches has been exceeded at treeline and in the alpine. Reports suggest that the snow depth at treeline is typically 110-150cm but a report from the east side of region shows only 80cm at treeline. On Thursday, the recent storm snow and wind were reported to have formed soft slabs at treeline in leeward terrain features. The crust from the middle of November is down 50-80cm and the crust from early November is down 80-110cm. The snowpack tapers off drastically below treeline and below around 1700m there is not yet enough snow for avalanches. On the western side of the Lizard Range, the snowpack depth was reported to be 40cm at 1800m elevation.