Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Thursday night: Cloudy, up to 5 cm of snow, light northweast winds, alpine temperature -14 C.

Friday: Cloudy, 5-10 cm of snow, strong northeast winds, alpine high temperature -14 C.

Saturday: Cloudy, 5-15 cm of snow, strong northeast winds, alpine high temperature -20 C.

Sunday: Mix of sun and cloud, light northeast winds, alpine high temperature -10 C. 

Strong winds are expected to form fresh wind slabs that may be reactive to human triggers. Cornices have also grown large with the recent weather, and a cornice failure could trigger a wind slab avalanche on the slope below.

Over the past few days, there have been several reports of natural, human-triggered, and explosive-triggered avalanches releasing in the recent storm snow, primarily on lee aspects above 1900 m. These avalanches were small to large (size 1.5-2), breaking 20-60 cm deep, and in a few cases, triggered by cornice falls.

Up to 10 cm of new snow may accumulate by Friday afternoon. Winds are forecast to shift to the northeast and to increase to 40-60 km/hr, building fresh wind slabs in a reverse-loading pattern.

A total of 30 to 60 cm of snow from the previous storm has been redistributed by wind or is well-settled. This snow sits over a layer of buried wind slabs in exposed areas and a sun crust on solar aspects (south through west facing slopes). Melt-freeze crusts extend up to 1900 m on other aspects. 

A thick crust/facet layer currently sits 30-60 cm below the surface. There has been only one avalanche reported on this layer since February 17th. The middle of the snowpack is generally strong, but the base of the snowpack contains weak basal facets that are most prominent in shallow rocky start zones.

• Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
• Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.