Avalog Join
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 8th, 2020–Jan 9th, 2020
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Give the new snow time to settle and bond before pushing into bigger terrain with higher consequences. Thursday's forecast calls for sunshine, which will promote instability on sun-affected slopes.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Wednesday night: Clear periods. Light to moderate northwest winds.

Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. Light northwest winds. Alpine temperatures around -14.

Friday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Moderate southwest winds, becoming strong at ridgetop. Alpine high temperatures around -10.

Saturday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Light southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -7.

Avalanche Summary

Reports of avalanche activity in the Fernie area on Tuesday showed numerous storm slabs releasing naturally as well as with remote triggers from skier traffic, and with explosives. Avalanches generally ranged from size 1 (small) to size 2.5 (large). The bulk of this activity was observed on north to east aspects.

Looking forward, the recent snow should begin to form a more reliable bond with the old surface as our slab problems become increasingly limited to wind-loaded areas at higher elevations.

Snowpack Summary

The recent storm brought about 40-70 cm of new snow to the region over the early part of the week. The new snow buried recent widespread wind affected snow that extended well below treeline. Recent Cornice growth in the alpine has been notable.

Several crusts layers have formed in the mid to upper snowpack as a result of recent warming and rain events. The uppermost of these may have acted as a bed surface for recent storm slab avalanches at treeline and below.

The lower snowpack consists of weak faceted snow and decomposing crusts but has not been an active avalanche problem recently.

Terrain and Travel

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
  • Avoid being on or under sun exposed slopes.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Heavy snowfall over the early week layered thick storm slabs over much of the region. The new snow needs time to settle and form a strong bond with the underlying surface. Until this happens, steeper slopes - especially where wind-loaded - may produce avalanches with a human trigger.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5