Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Vancouver Island.
Past Weather
A series of cool nights and warm and sunny days with no precipitation.
Weather Forecast
A south west flow will deliver this forecast period overcast sky and periods of flurries for most days, Forecast models indicate that increased precipitation amounts are likely in the northern half of the forecast area.Friday: Trace amounts of snow. Winds Light to Moderate from the Southwest, Freezing levels 200 meters rising to 800 meters. Temps at 1500 meters -6Saturday: 5 to 15 cm of snow, Winds Moderate to Strong from the South West , Freezing level 700 meters rising to 1000 meters. Temps at 1500 meters -4Sunday: Trace amounts of snow. Winds Moderate to Strong from the North West, Freezing levels 400 to 1000 meters. Temps at 1500 meters -4
Terrain Advice
Caution when transitioning into areas that are being loaded with new snow and wind.Avoid travelling both above and below cornices.As you descend in elevation , the loose wet avalanche problem is likely to present.
Snowpack Summary
Past warm and sunny conditions followed with periods of overnight cooling have continued to slowly settle and strengthen the entire snowpack. All snow surfaces including north aspects became moist, with solar aspects becoming unconsolidated down 10-15cm. A cooling trend is expected to refreeze the upper snowpack and proved a new surface for incoming precipitation to slide on.
Snowpack Details
- Surface: Moist, expected to refreeze into a meltfreeze crust
- Upper: Well settled with a number of unreactive laminated crusts
- Mid: Well settled and dense.
- Lower: Well settled and dense.
Confidence
Moderate - Excellent field observations of past warming cycle and good agreement between forecasts weather models for this area.
Avalanche Problems
Cornices
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Loose Wet
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Wind Slabs
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1