Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 17th, 2015–Nov 18th, 2015
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Banff Yoho Kootenay.

Avalanche control planned for Sunshine tonight, Bosworth, and Mt. Stephen on Wednesday. Depending on results we may also do Simpson, Whymper, and clean up on Sunshine. Please no recreational activities in these areas on Wednesday.

Weather Forecast

The cold front passes by midnight: the snow should end, temperatures continue to drop, and winds should taper. For Wednesday, expect isolated flurries and light winds from the W gusting to 50 km/hr. Stable weather is forecasted for the remainder of the week with 2 nights of -18C temperatures (Thur & Fri) and warmer for the weekend (-12C).

Snowpack Summary

Essentially 2 major snowfall events in the past week has created the snowpack. The midpack is supportive, but not glued to the ground very well with two column test failures at the ground level on Monday. A layer of surface hoar exists 15-20 cm off the ground, but no test results were found on this layer.

Avalanche Summary

Visibility has been poor today, but some avalanches were heard. Today ski cutting around Sunshine produced only small surface avalanches with nothing stepping down. This may change with more load overnight from snow and wind. We expect natural avalanche activity to continue tomorrow with moderate W winds adding load to the weak layers.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Strong winds have been redistributing the loose snow into leeward areas where windslab failures should be expected in the upper 80 cm on leeward terrain. Continued moderate SW wind Wednesday will add to the load causing natural avalanches.
The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Storm Slabs

The entire snowpack is a result of 2 recent storms.  Surface hoar and facets lye at the base of this storm snow where only a few days ago produced a few alarmingly large avalanches.  It was becoming less reactive, but tonight's storm may wake it up.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3