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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 12th, 2019–Mar 13th, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Avalanche hazard will remain elevated as the storm continues, especially in areas with accumulations of 20 cm or more.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Scattered flurries with accumulations between 5-10 cm. Alpine temperature low -10C. Light northeast winds. WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperature reaching -5C with light west winds. Freezing level at 1300m. THURSDAY: Mainly cloudy. Dry. Slightly colder with high temperature of -8C. Light west winds at ridgetops.FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy. Dry. Alpine temperature reaching -4C. Light south west winds at ridgetops. 

Avalanche Summary

Small and isolated (size 1) wind slab avalanches were naturally triggered Monday on steep alpine features. With this new round of precipitations and wind, storm and wind slabs are likely to be reactive on heavily wind exposed terrain at treeline and alpine, where small loose dry avalanches are likely on steep terrain.

Snowpack Summary

15-20 cm of storm snow has buried hard wind slabs in the alpine and open areas at treeline on various aspects due to variable past winds. This new snow also sits on sun crusts on south facing slopes and on isolated surface hoar crystal on north-facing slopes. The mid-snowpack consists of sugary faceted grains (facets) of different hardness. Two older layers of surface hoar are now down 55-80 and down 95-150 around 1600-1900m. The lower snowpack is generally well-settled.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm and wind slabs were recently formed with variable wind and storm snow (15-20 cm). Watch for localized areas with deeper accumulations.
If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Building storm slabs will likely be reactive to rider triggers, especially at upper elevations.The best powder will be found in sheltered locations at or below treeline.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2