Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Unsettled conditions are expected for Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the coast. Cloudy conditions with light flurries are expected for the morning and a mix of sun and cloud is expected for the afternoon. Afternoon freezing levels are expected to be around 1300m and alpine winds are forecast to be moderate from the northwest. Sunny conditions are expected for Thursday with afternoon freezing levels around 1500m and light to moderate outflow winds. A mix of sun and cloud is forecast for Friday with freezing levels climbing as high as 2500m and moderate southerly winds in the alpine.

On Monday, a natural cornice fall triggered a size 1.5 storm slab on a northeast aspect at 2000m. Another size 2 cornice release was reported but it did not trigger a slab. A skier triggered a size 1 storm slab on a convex wind loaded feature which was 20-50cm thick. Another skier remotely triggered a size 1.5 storm slab from 10m away on a southeast aspect at 1800m elevation which was 35cm thick. Explosives triggered several cornices size 2-3. Natural and artificially triggered avalanche activity up to size 2.5 was reported from across the region over the weekend. If the sun comes out on Wednesday, cornices and lingering slabs are expected to become weak, and could even fail naturally.  Loose sluffing is expected from steep sun exposed slopes.

Up to 120cm of snow fell over the last week.  This snow is reported to be settling and gaining strength, but lingering storm instabilities may still exist, especially in recently wind loaded terrain features.  Cornices are reported to be large and fragile. Isolated sun crusts can already be found on steep sun exposed slopes, with widespread sun crust formation expected in the next couple days.  The mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and well-settled.